Beyond the Numbers: Professional Forecasters’ Narratives about Inflation and Stock Market Performance
04 FÉVRIER 2026 15:00
| Durée 50:49 | Vues 110
Professional forecasters’ heterogeneous narratives about how inflation affects stock market performance in 2023 rationalize their high disagreement regarding quantitative expectations for 12-month-ahead inflation and stock returns in December 2022. Depending on their entertained narrative, professional forecasters causally update their return expectations in heterogeneous directions in response to information about the inflation outlook, and their asset allocation in a hypothetical portfolio-choice experiment. Hence, providing common signals does not necessarily lead to convergence of beliefs if agents subscribe to different narratives.